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 Good morning. Here's what you need to know. - Markets in Asia were mixed in overnight trading. The Hong Kong Hang Seng dropped 0.3%, and the Shanghai Composite was flat. Japan was closed. European indices are rallying, led by the Italian FTSE MIB, which is up 0.8%. In the United States, futures point to a positive open.
- The official China non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 56.3 in October from September's 55.4 reading. Numbers above 50 indicate varying rates of growth while numbers below 50 indicate varying degrees of contraction, so the October reading suggests that the pace of growth in China's services sector accelerated further last month. Markit releases another estimate — the HSBC China services PMI — at 8:45 PM ET Monday. This index registered at 52.4 in September.
- Australian retail sales growth unexpectedly accelerated to 0.8% month over month in September on a seasonally-adjusted basis, up from August's 0.5% pace of growth and economists' consensus prediction for a 0.4% advance. Real retail sales rose 0.7% in Q3, exceeding estimates for 0.2% growth and reversing the decline of 0.1% observed in Q2.
- Markit's eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 51.3 in October from September's 51.1 reading, matching consensus estimates and the preliminary reading published by Markit earlier this month. Growth in manufacturing was seen across the region last month, except for in France and Greece.
- Within the eurozone, Germany's manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 from 51.1, suggesting an acceleration in manufacturing growth, while France's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 from 49.8, indicating a deepening contraction. Italy's manufacturing PMI ticked down to 50.7 from 50.8, while Spain's rose to 50.9 from 50.7.
- Sentix's gauge of eurozone investor confidence surged to 9.3 in November from 6.1 in October, registering the highest reading in more than two years. Economists predicted only a tick up to 6.2.
- The lone economic datapoints for release in the United States today are August and September factory orders, due out at 10 AM ET. Reports for both months are being released simultaneously due to postponement from the government shutdown. Economists predict orders advanced 1.8% in September.
- Federal Reserve governor Jerome Powell speaks in San Francisco at 11:20 AM. Market participants will be listening closely for clues about the tapering timeline after last week's October FOMC statement provided little clarification. "[The] question for investors is how close they seem themselves to tapering and whether the market mistake was in over-arching dovishness after the September FOMC or reading little change in the Statement as implicit hawkishness," says Steven Englander, global head of G-10 FX strategy at Citi.
- Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren, a voting member on the FOMC, will also speak today at 4 PM. Rosengren will address the U.S. economy in his speech, with a Q&A to follow.
- According to a Financial Times report, hedge fund SAC Capital Advisors will plead guilty to criminal insider trading charges as soon as today, and face a $1 billion fine. "As a result of the guilty plea SAC will effectively shut as a firm managing other people’s money and close the door on Mr Cohen’s enviable success as a money manager," reports the FT's Kara Scannell. "Nearly all of its $6bn from pension funds and wealthy individuals will be returned by the end of the year. It has said it will close its London office and has let go numerous employees."
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