Anything For You All: Bank of America asked a group of investors overseeing $645 billion how companies should be spending their money — and the responses show just how scared they are of a credit meltdown

Selasa, 15 Januari 2019

Bank of America asked a group of investors overseeing $645 billion how companies should be spending their money — and the responses show just how scared they are of a credit meltdown

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Bank of America asked a group of investors overseeing $645 billion how companies should be spending their money — and the responses show just how scared they are of a credit meltdown

Investors are demanding changes to how companies spend their money amid concerns about excessive corporate debt.
Two telling responses in Bank of America Merrill Lynch's monthly survey of fund managers help to quantify their concern.

A recession is not the only prospect that bothers Wall Street these days.

The ongoing stock-market turmoil and profit warnings from companies surely have many worried about the end of this economic cycle.

But even before the stock market swooned late last year, several experts were shouting from the rooftops about trouble brewing in corporate credit and the ending of that market's cycle.

The warnings reverberate today. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch's latest monthly survey of fund managers, corporate leverage is the biggest concern among 234 investors who collectively manage $645 billion in assets.

The glaring backdrop of their concerns is the 2008 financial crisis, triggered by none other than the credit market. Although that crisis was driven by consumer spending, the memories of subprime borrowing and overall lax lending standards are very fresh in most investors' minds.

The concern now is that companies with excessive corporate leverage could be at the center of another credit crisis.

It's little wonder, then, that investors are clamoring for companies to correct their ways. Bank of America's survey found that investor demand for companies to improve their balance sheets soared in the past year and in January, was at its highest since September 2009. Also, their demand for higher spending on capital expenditure was at its lowest since October 2009.

In the post-crisis era of low borrowing costs, companies with the weakest investment-grade ratings have been able to load up on cheap debt. Many watchers of the credit market, including the ratings agency Moody's, have flagged how companies increasingly sought out covenant-lite loans that relax financing terms.

Other experts, including former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, have warned about loose underwriting standards attached to the trillions of dollars in outstanding corporate debt.

Now that the noose is tightening on monetary policy, investors are worried about a wave of corporate defaults that would hit companies with the weakest balance sheets especially hard.

It's no wonder, then, that many strategists are advising investors to load up on shares of companies with the strongest balance sheets. As a starter, Goldman Sachs compiled a list of high-quality companies that should be able to withstand a market slowdown. Read »