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Jumat, 30 November 2012

Here's Who Owns The Stock Market

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Friday, November 30, 2012
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Here's Who Owns The Stock Market

As the year ends, various firms are giving their major assessments of the state of the market and the economy.

This chart comes from Goldman's David J. Kostin, who among other things, is looking at the changing nature of stock market ownership.

His report includes this great chart.

Click to enlarge.



One thing that's interesting is that mutual funds are still absolutely ginormous, comprising 20% of US corporate equity market ownership.

Still that is shifting.

Via Dave Lutz of Stifel, Nicolaus, the data from the last week provides a snapshot of what's going on.

AMG/Lipper reporting Equity funds report net cash outflows totaling -$281 million with Domestic funds reporting net outflows of -$770 million and Non-domestic funds reporting net inflows totaling $490 million –

However, Including ETF activity, Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $7.379 billion in the week ended 11/28/12 with Domestic funds reporting net inflows of $4.923 billion and Non-domestic funds reporting net inflows of $2.456 billion.

Remember, if a ETF is gaining assets, it could be for SHORTING. 

Bigger picture is that the huge boom in vehicles like mutual funds is frequently associated with baby boomer investments.

As Goldman notes, this is a source of uncertainty.

Retiring baby-boomers could spark a massive disinvestment in equities which would compress valuations and could constrain stock returns. On the other hand, greater longevity means the next generation of retirees may choose to liquidate equity holdings at a slower pace to reduce the risk that they outlast their savings. In ten years, roughly 17% of the US population will be more than 65 years old (up from 13% today).

Analysis of 401K retirement fund asset allocation by age cohort shows that allocation to equities falls by roughly 15 percentage points from an average of 64% when individuals are in their 40s to 47% when individuals are in their 60s. Measured asset re-allocation along this glide path would not translate into the avalanche of equity outflow that some forecasters fear will occur as baby-boomers retire. A reduction in equity allocation when individuals are in their 60s does not mean stock holdings fall to zero. Furthermore, accumulated baby-boomer assets may be bequeathed to a younger generation, leading to less selling pressure than many believe. Read »



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