Dear Readers, How prepared would you say you are for a sudden spike in inflation? If you haven't given it more than a second of thought, you're not alone. After all, the annual inflation rate for the US is sub-1% right now, and it's hovered around 2% for much of the past three years. As it turns out, clients of Morgan Stanley are similarly nonplussed by the prospect of an inflationary shock. It's an attitude the firm says has been emboldened by the lack of inflationary stress seen following the 2008 financial crisis. If you aren't yet a subscriber to Investing Insider, you can sign up here. But Morgan Stanley says to ignore the threat of an inflation spike at your own risk. It argues that conditions are vastly different now — especially as it relates to the expansion of money supply — and that a surge could occur. And to make matters worse, the firm says most investor portfolios are woefully prepared for such a shift. Read the full story here. Parsing Morgan Stanley's inflation wake-up call is just one example of the work being done by the Investing team at Business Insider. We're here to unpack the ever-changing market landscape during these unprecedented times. See below for our best stories of the week, including a wide array of recommendations, strategies, and tips for navigating uncertainty. Thanks for reading! -- Joe Mike Simmons started as a house-flipper, but shifted gears to a different strategy when he realized how much faster he completed transactions. Now he completes about 100 deals a year and rakes in over $1 million in profits. And then there's Brian Burke, the president and CEO of Praxis Capital. He got his start in real estate after being enamored by a late-night infomercial touting financial freedom. Like Simmons, he implemented a sudden pivot in strategy in order to open up more profitable opportunities. Read the full stories here: The Federal Reserve could become technically insolvent due to the risks embedded in some assets it has added to its balance sheet since the coronavirus crisis started, says Jay Bryson, the chief economist at Wells Fargo. While the ultimate consequences of this are likely to be more political than economic, Bryson explores a possible scenario where the Fed's decision-making power is hamstrung in the future by the extreme measures the bank is taking today. Read the full story here: Investor interest in space is skyrocketing, as companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Virgin Galactic race toward a number of milestones. In an exclusive interview, Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas told Business Insider that interest levels may be getting too high, and concurred that space investing could see dot-com-style mania. Read the full story here: Stock pick central Seeking experts who are willing to name names? Look no further: Chart of the week Morgan Stanley points to the data plotted above — which reflects US money supply growth — as a leading indicator of inflation. As you can see, there's been a historic spike as the Fed has rolled out efforts designed to hasten a post-coronavirus economic recovery. The firm qualifies this with another potentially damning observation: People just aren't worried about an inflation spike, nor are they positioned for one. Morgan Stanley sees this as short-sighted and potentially damaging. Quote of the week "This is potentially more inflationary than appreciated which means back end rates can rise. Very few portfolios are prepared for such an outcome. Such shifts can happen quickly when they are so unexpected." — Mike Wilson, the chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, discussing the potential impact of further US money supply expansion |
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